I was talking with someone the other day about negative ads and why there are so many of them. The reason why they exist is of course because they work. How they work is not always completely understood. Icepick explained to me a long time ago that the point of a negative ad by Bush isn’t really to get Kerry supporters to vote for Bush. The basic idea is to get people who are likely to vote Kerry but who are not very committed to STAY HOME. The fewer people vote the fewer people have to be convinced. If I can’t get you to vote for me the next best thing is to get you to not care. A big reason why turnout is so low is that this is exactly what the political process is trying to achieve. Even if you hate Bush you might not bother to vote if think Kerry is just another weasel.
If you like Bush already, then finding out that Kerry is a left-wing flip flopper might make you more likely to get out and vote. But of course if you aren’t very committed then you’ll probably stay home since you are also being told Bush is a loser by the other side.
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